BackgroundNon-communicable diseases (NCDs), notably cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus, are largely driven by metabolic syndrome (MetS), a cluster of critical risk factors. Despite extensive research, the progression of MetS, especially in Indonesia, has received limited attention. This research tracks adult MetS risk dynamics in a populous Bogor District cohort, providing crucial insights into its evolving nature.MethodsThis prospective open cohort study analysed secondary data from the Special Research - Cohort Study of Non-Communicable Diseases by the Ministry of Health, Republic of Indonesia from 2011 to 2018. The final sample was 1,376 Indonesian adult participants, all residents of Bogor District. MetS outcome, dietary assessment, physical activity, and biomarkers were analysed every two consecutive years.ResultsThe risk of overweight and obese participants developing MetS was 2 …