The formulation of an effective and sustainable water resources management for Bintan Island requires future rainfall data, considering that freshwater availability on the island is highly dependent on rainfall. This study examines future meteorological drought changes using historical rainfall data (1981–2021) from the Kijangstation and CHIRPS as well as near future rainfall projection (2006–2045) from four CORDEX-SEA projection models under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The drought conditions were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index at 3-month and 6-month scales (SPI-3 and SPI-6). To improve spatial resolution, the CORDEX-SEA data (25 km × 25 km) were downscaled to 5 km × 5 km using quantile mapping bias correction, with corrected CHIRPS data as the observational reference. The corrected CORDEX-SEA projects a decrease in annual rainfall by 17% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8 …