A temporal fusion transformer for multi-step forecasting of Indonesia’s strategic food commodity prices

Penulis: Amalia, SaviraDhini, ArianZulkarnainZa’in, ChoiruSurjandari, Isti
Informasi
JurnalResults in Engineering
PenerbitElsevier B.V.
Volume & EdisiVol. 30
Halaman -
Tahun Publikasi2026
ISSN25901230
Jenis SumberScopus
Abstrak
Accurate forecasting of food commodity prices is essential for mitigating economic instability and ensuring national food security. While deep learning has advanced time series forecasting, this study employs the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) architecture for multi-step (30-day) forecasting of daily prices across ten strategic food commodities in Indonesia. The TFT’s performance is compared against benchmark models Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), ARIMA, and Naïve models. The results demonstrate TFT’s superior performance, particularly for commodities with high price variability. For these, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the best-performing benchmark was higher than TFT’s by 285.6% for bird’s eye chili, 65.7% for shallots, 52.8% for red chili, 36.2% for chicken meat, and 29.9% for beef. This work validates the TFT as a powerful tool for developing data-driven policy and more effective price management in Indonesia. © 2026 The Author(s).
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