In Kupang Regency, Indonesia, drought occurs almost every year, affecting rice production, which requires a significant amount of water. Despite its frequent occurrence, limited studies have focused on agricultural drought in the region. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural drought and their relationship with rice yield using the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). Spatial and temporal patterns were analysed based on physical conditions, while the relationship with rice yield was examined using the Spearman correlation test. The results showed that the most severe droughts occurred in 2015 and 2019, affecting 15,063 ha and 14,187 ha, respectively. The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis revealed that VHI had an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.732. In addition, agricultural drought had a positive correlation with elevation. The majority of drought occurred in areas with an elevations of 0–25 m a.s.l., alluvial soil types, slopes of 0–8%, and within 0–229 m of water sources. The results also showed that patterns in Kupang Regency closely followed precipitation trends, with a one-month lag due to soil moisture. However, agricultural drought did not significantly impact productivity, as shown by significance values greater than 0.05. © 2025. The Authors.