The Indonesian government's decision to implement a ban on mineral ore exports in 2014 and 2020 has sparked significant interest and debate among policymakers, economists, and industry stakeholders. This policy marks a significant shift in Indonesia's approach to mineral resource management, aiming to enhance domestic value added, promote industrial development, and conserve natural resources. However, the ban may lead to unintended consequences such as the emergence of illegal export activities. Using monthly UN Comtrade data from 2012 to 2022, combined with time–commodity–country fixed effects and the Anderson–Hsiao estimator, we examine how export bans influence illegal export, measured by bilateral trade discrepancy. The results reveal that export quantities are often underreported or reclassified to bypass restrictions, leading to estimated losses of 3.45–14.75% of total import volumes. Corruption further amplifies these discrepancies by enabling bribery and manipulation of customs data. In response, Indonesia has introduced the Mineral and Coal Information System (SIMBARA) to improve transparency and monitoring across the mining sector. This application initially monitors only coal. Expanding the system to include all mineral commodities could help close existing data gaps and reduce illegal exports. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2026.